Expected Goals (xG)

Expected goals (xG) assigns a probability to each shot based on location, type, and context — summing to an expected scoreline.

A team can win 1-0 while losing on xG if they scored from their only big chance.

Our Poisson-style forecasts use scoring and conceding rates that correlate with xG thinking, though we display simpler form stats on site.

xG is useful for spotting teams due a regression in results — not shown on every Kickoff Tips page but common in deeper analysis.