Poisson Model for Football Predictions

A Poisson model estimates how many goals each team is likely to score based on recent scoring and conceding rates, then calculates the probability of each scoreline.

The model assumes goals are independent events — not perfect for every match, but a strong baseline for league football.

Kickoff Tips combines Poisson-style analysis with predictions from our data sources and recent form to produce our match forecasts.

Read our full methodology page for how confidence scores sit on top of the statistical baseline.