How Our Predictions Work
Kickoff Tips produces match forecasts by combining three layers of analysis: statistical prediction data from our sources, Poisson-style expected-goals modelling, and recent form statistics from each team's last five matches.
1. Statistical baseline
For each fixture we ingest predicted winner, scoreline, Over/Under tip, BTTS suggestion, and win probabilities from our data sources. This provides a data-driven starting point calibrated across thousands of matches.
2. Form analysis
We calculate each team's last-five record: wins, draws, losses, goals scored and conceded, BTTS frequency, and Over/Under 2.5 split. Strong or weak recent form adjusts how much weight we give the baseline prediction.
3. Poisson expected goals
A Poisson distribution models the probability of each scoreline based on expected goals derived from scoring and conceding rates. This helps validate or challenge the baseline scoreline when form data points in a different direction. Learn more about Poisson models.
Confidence score
The confidence percentage on each tip page (typically 50–95) reflects how strongly the combined model backs the pick. We start from the highest win probability in our data and adjust using form divergence — when recent results strongly support or contradict the baseline, confidence moves up or down.
Confidence is not a guarantee. Use it to compare picks within a matchday, not as a standalone betting signal. View our track record for historical 1X2 accuracy.
Frequently asked questions
What data sources do you use?
We use licensed football data providers for fixtures, predictions, and odds, combined with recent form statistics calculated from each team's last five matches.
What is the confidence score?
A percentage from 50 to 95 showing how strongly our model backs the prediction. It combines win probabilities from our data sources with recent form — wins, goals, BTTS, and Over/Under trends.
Do you use a Poisson model?
Yes. Expected goals from recent scoring and conceding rates feed into Poisson-style probability estimates. These sit alongside predictions from our data sources to produce our match forecasts.
Does high confidence guarantee a win?
No. Confidence reflects model conviction, not certainty. Even a 75% confidence pick loses roughly one in four times over the long run. See our track record for historical accuracy.